Switzerland and norway as role models

Great Britain is debating whether to "Brexit" – the country’s exit from the EU

On 27. On June 27, a majority of government representatives from the 28 EU member states voted in favor of Jean-Claude Juncker as the new EU Commissioner. British Prime Minister David Cameron, who voted against, had previously warned that the election of the declared Eurofederalist with a rather tactical relationship to the truth could contribute significantly to British citizens deciding against remaining in the EU in a referendum in three years’ time. This opinion is also shared by all other major parties in the United Kingdom, which want to vote unanimously against the Luxembourger in the European Parliament.

British media are therefore discussing in detail the possibility of their country leaving the EU, for which they have found a short and pithy name: "Brexit" – composed of "Britain" and "Exit". Several possible scenarios are discussed: After leaving, for example, Great Britain could join (or remain in) the European Economic Area (EEA), similar to the Kingdom of Norway. Then, little would change for the UK, except that British governments would no longer be formally involved in the enactment of new EU rules. Due to the coarseness of the country, however, it is likely that consultations will take place before any major changes are made.

Switzerland and Norway as role models

Map: Telepolis

The UK had more leeway when it negotiated new bilateral treaties with the EU, as Switzerland did. For example, this has been used to limit immigration from Eastern Europe, which is a source of resentment, especially among lower income groups with high levels of competition. If the EU does not agree, it would be possible to join the European Customs Union, which, in addition to the EU member states, also includes Turkey, Andorra, San Marino and Monaco.

The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) has offered a prize for the best EU exit plan

Because of these options, it is not possible to seriously predict the economic consequences of an EU exit: Forecasts range from single-digit percentage losses (because exports to other EU countries could be made more difficult) to significantly more economic growth that could result if Brussels bureaucratic shackles were removed.

Lobbying groups are also divided: While some warn that British politicians would not be able to influence EU rules after an exit, others believe that London’s financial center can survive outside the EU.

In any case, a British referendum in which citizens decide to leave the EU could serve as a model for other countries such as France, Italy or the Netherlands. Especially when in Great Britain after a few years it became obvious that such an exit has no significant negative consequences. In France and the Netherlands, clear majorities had already voted against the EU treaty in 2005, although the two major political blocs campaigned intensively for it.

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